Worst-case gem check
How much it could cost to guarantee completion if luck is terrible. It's not a recommendation to buy now.
extra pulls for a guarantee
0gems for those pulls
Nonecheapest purchase mix
Enter gemscurrent gem coverage
The 3,000-gem reward only arrives after finishing.
How the break-even works
Directly new pulls count once. Every 5 duplicates count as another missing piece through the automatic exchange.
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FAQ
How accurate is the free-finish estimate?
The percentage is calculated exactly under one assumption: each of the 45 pieces has the same chance of appearing on a normal pull. The game announcement says pieces are random, but does not confirm equal odds or rule out hidden rarity weights. The 5-duplicate exchange is guaranteed to give a missing piece, so its selection doesn't matter for the uniform model. Treat the percentage as a model estimate, not a promise. The break-even numbers don't depend on the piece odds.
Is there a rarity system in Fright Fest?
The official announcement does not list rarity tiers or drop rates, and some players see pieces that all look alike. That does not establish that each piece has identical odds. Some community posts suspect weighted pieces. Until the actual rates are known, this tool models all 45 pieces as equally likely, and its percentage may be too optimistic if rarities exist.
Can I get duplicates on day one?
Yes. With 3 draws from 45 equally likely pieces, the chance of at least one repeat is around 6.6%. An early duplicate does not by itself prove the drops are weighted.
Does buying pieces guarantee a new one?
No. A single paid piece can be a duplicate. However, while you still have pieces missing, any five pulls in total must result in at least one new piece: either directly or through the 5-duplicate exchange.
How is "with gems" calculated?
The calculator first uses your remaining free pulls. It then allows up to as many additional pulls as your current gems could buy. It assumes bought pulls have the same odds as free pulls, and that you only spend if needed. Gems never affect the free-finish estimate.
When should I enter days remaining?
After collecting today's pieces, enter the days shown on Duolingo. If you haven't pulled today, include today's remaining pulls separately in your count rather than accidentally counting them twice. Duolingo says the event runs for 30 days, but the display can round down partial days. Don't assume you have an extra full day when the timer says 0.
Should I buy gems now?
Usually it is better to use your daily free pieces first and check again near the event's end. The worst-case cost is a guarantee bound, not a prediction of what you'll spend. The completion reward is 3,000 gems, received after all five puzzles are done.
Why does the break-even rate differ from the free-finish chance?
The rate is the minimum fraction of your remaining pulls that must be new for a free finish to be possible. The chance is how likely that finish is under the equal-chance model, including how duplicates become more frequent as your collection grows.
What if I only get 2 pieces per day?
Change the "Free pulls per day" field to 2. Daily piece limits have differed between players and can change as an event rolls out.